Ducks Lining Up
23 05 2006
With some basic maths, a smidge of rat cunning and a whole load of dumb luck I actually won that competition to guess when the 10,000th blog on edublogs would be created.
For anyone who cares this is how I did it.
From this article I knew that there service started in August last year. From the competition descripton I saw how many blogs they had on that day (9,854 on May 16). So then I used this tool to calculate how many days between those dates (288 assuming it started on 1st August 2005).
So by dividing 9,854 blogs by 288 days I know that, on average, 35 new blogs are created each day.
I take 9,854 from 10,000 and know that there are 146 left until it hits 10,000. So at 35 new blogs a day that would be four days and take me from the 16th (when the competition started) until the 20th.
But I also figure that people are joining at a faster rate than the overall average because the service would have started out slowly and then built up speed of takeup. So I knock a day off my estimate for account for this.
And as for 4.32 I just figured that most teachers are too busy in classtimes so picked time after school. As it turns out it was really 7.20am, before school Australian time.
As I said, some maths, some cunning and a heap of luck.
